The Greatest Variable
Farming without the weather is (almost) impossible and it's the one thing we can't control
It’s summer here from a meteorological standpoint. The Solstice has come and gone and the first heatwave has hit. Which inevitably brings up the main conversation piece for any rural Canadian, especially farmers “How’s the weather over your way?” This year the answer in a lot of places will probably include a variation of “nice but we could sure use some rain.”
Rain, or lack thereof, is probably the biggest stress every summer. With the increasing unpredictability of the weather due to climate change, historical rain patterns are no longer as reliable. Weather is our greatest variable as farmers. It’s the one thing we can not control or even accurately predict. The only way around it for the most part would be to use greenhouses. However, they are still susceptible to things like frost unless they are heated. Frost has been a concern in many regions this month with some killer late frosts.
Rainfall is a key factor of success. If there is no rain, your crops will not grow. So I’ve put together a wide range of resources on building drought tolerance and managing your risk. For starters, check this website to see what is the normal temperature and precipitation. It shows you a historical monthly average for the closest weather station. This will allow you to make basic cropping decisions as it would not be good to plant a water-loving crop in a region that averages 400mm of rainfall. It will also show you seasonal patterns. Since we’re in the northern hemisphere, rain in January is a whole lot less useful than rain in July.
Drought Monitor
AAFC has a number of valuable resources and trackers during the year starting with the Drought Monitor. It gives you an idea of how good or bad the growing season is going with a ranking that is accepted across North America with a monthly update. D0 (abnormally dry) has been fairly typical in the last years in many regions. D2 to D4 are concerning with D4 being the worst-case scenario. Several areas in Manitoba and vast parts of the southwestern USA are in D4 droughts right now which will have major impacts.
Other Maps and Data
In addition to the drought monitor, there is also the Agroclimate Maps which allow you to compare various types of metrics. The Drought Analysis feature lets you compare various months of different years to aid your decision-making. All of these resources and several more can be accessed here.
Next step is monitoring weather forecasts. Besides the ever popular Weather Network, I use the following resources:
Weather Underground - you can control which stations you get information from in addition to a number of other metrics. I find it interesting to track patterns.
Brett Anderson’s blog on Accuweather - this is worth checking out, he has longer range forecasts that give you an idea of what kind of weather to expect by the week. I’ve followed this blog for four years now and the forecasts are pretty good, great for planning hay cuts.
AgWeather Quebec (mobile version) - if you live in Quebec, this is very handy. It lets you track heat units and percipation for your township and compare it what is expected. The data is very close to the information used on the hay insurance.
Planning Ahead
Once you have an understanding of how the weather is going to impact your farm, you can start planning ahead. Even short periods of drought can greatly impact your operation, especially if you have livestock. For starters, it’s important to know how much feed you need if you have livestock. You can find a detailed breakdown here on a blog from last year explaining how to calculate your hay needs. Knowing your feed rations is also key, as detailed here. Once you know how much feed you need, you can start to plan.
Start shopping early. If you need to buy hay, do not wait until winter. Price trends up as the growing season ends and supply is usually going to be at it’s lowest in the spring.
If price becomes an issue, use your rations to plan for alternative feed sources. If it’s early enough in the growing season, you can plant an alternative crop like sorghum sudangrass or millet to stretch supplies. If you have enough animals, you can also look at corn silage.
You might have to consider culling or eliminating expansion plans. If you don’t have the feed, it is not a good idea to expand your herd. Knowing if you have to sell more stock early can allow you to make better marking decisions than waiting until you run out of feed. Having the cull list ready in advance will take the emotions out of the equation.
Get insurance. If you have the option of crop insurance, hay insurance, and risk management, use them. They are here to help when the weather (or market) goes sideways.
If long-term drought is an issue, adapt your management practices to cope with that. Maybe consider irrigation projects, plant more drought-tolerant crops, and take whatever steps you can to reduce the effects of weather problems.
Keep It Real
The biggest thing with the weather is to remember that you have no control over it. Don’t count on your profits before harvest and market a bumper crop yield in advance when you don’t know if you’ll get that. Using caution and safety nets like crop insurance and stockpiling can really help mitigate your risks. Always keep a margin of error for what the weather might do. If you use a lot of hay and have a surplus, don’t sell it until you’re sure you have a surplus. We can’t change the weather, we can only learn to live with it.